Heating Up to Global Warming
by Brian Dunning
Filed under Environment
April 16, 2007
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Also available in Russian
There are obvious signs that everyone can see, and that aren't being debated:
the Earth is on a warming trend over the past century or so. Ice shelves and
glaciers have been shrinking alarmingly everywhere. We know that there's more
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than ever before. Almost all climatologists
draw a causal relationship between temperature and CO2, saying that
CO2 creates the greenhouse effect, thus causing the higher temperatures.
A few people draw the causal relationship in the other direction. Most people
say the current trend is truly remarkable, but only if you choose a recent
segment of climate history. Some people say that if you look back far enough
you'll find many such ups and downs that have been far more dramatic than this
one and have lasted many times longer, before there were those evil pesky humans
around to cause it. The big question, which is significant because it's one
that we probably can do something about, asks how much is human activity to
blame for the current trend. Everyone agrees that it's at least partly to blame,
but the estimates of how much range from 100% to .00001%. Regardless, it's
non-zero, and it really should be zero, and everyone agrees that making it
zero should be a goal. But we're left with many intractable questions: How
much can we do? How much should we do? How much do we need to do? How much
can we afford to do? How much can we get away with? All things considered,
where do lines really need to be drawn?
Lots of people pretend to have the answers to those questions. In any debate
on global warming, both sides will generally say something like
"When you actually look at the data, it shows X, not Y." Well, who
actually has looked at the data? I don't pretend that I have. I haven't
gone down into the cave myself and examined the ice cores under the gas chromatograph.
I haven't looked up the raw data from ocean temperature measurements in the
Aegean Sea. I haven't personally measured rainfall across southern Africa over
the past 100 years. I've seen Al Gore's movie, but that's a meta-analysis of
some guy's meta analysis of some other guy's meta anaylsis. None of the clowns
out there who presume to speak authoritatively about what the actual data shows
have looked at any raw data. They've looked at someone's meta-analysis of data
collected from many sources. Please, next time you're having a conversation
on global warming, don't tell us what the data actually shows, because you
saw a guy on TV tell us what the data actually shows. No one person can or
ever will "look at all the data." A person can look at an infinitesimally
small chunk of data that's out of all meaningful context, but let's get real
here: the Earth is about the most complicated system imaginable. NEC's Earth
Simulator supercomputer, for years the fastest supercomputer on the planet,
is dedicated to this task, and they still can't tell us whether it's going
to rain tomorrow. Think about that. The Earth is simply way too complicated
for any person to be able to claim to understand.
Al Gore says he understands it, and he made the movie An
Inconvenient Truth to tell us how alarming the situation really
is. Senator James Inhofe says he understands it, and he wrote the Skeptic's
Guide to Debunking Global Warming to tell us how alarmed we should
be at how alarmingly the alarmists alarm us. Whether you're feeling alarmed
or not, I'm sure you agree that it's most responsible to listen to both
sides if this is an issue where you feel taking sides is appropriate. I'm
afraid I don't see it that way. I'm skeptical of anyone who says we know
how much we have to reduce emissions.
Here's the way I look at global warming: I don't personally have enough expertise
to accurately interpret all the information flying around from both sides,
and I can't claim to know for sure how much human activity is responsible for
our current trend in average temperatures. But there is one thing that I do
know, from simple common sense: Pumping carbon dioxide or any other pollutants
into our air is bad. In the United States, the environmental movement successfully
killed nuclear power, requiring us to depend almost entirely upon coal, oil,
and natural gas power plants. Various studies put the number of annual premature
deaths in the United States caused by emissions from these power plants at
between 30,000 and 60,000 (thank you, environmental movement). Imagine at least
one 9/11-style terrorist attack every month, and that's our ongoing death toll
caused just by our power plants. This doesn't even include emissions from manufacturing
or transportation. Imagine what this number must be in China, a country with
500 times our annual death toll from coal mining accidents. No matter how you
slice it, atmospheric pollution is a horrible, horrible thing. So one way to
look at it is — global warming aside — we should stop all emissions
immediately, now, yesterday. Everyone already agrees it would be great if we
lived in Fantasyland and had zero emissions. And little birds singing on our
But it's not as simple as that. As evil and politically incorrect as it may
sound, the fact is that everything has its cost/benefit ratio. Let's say we
turned off all the coal, oil, and natural gas fired power plants in the country.
In about 30 minutes, we're back in the Bronze Age. Everyone on life support
in a hospital is dead. Every factory stops production. The Gross National Product
drops to virtually zero almost immediately. We run out of food in about a week
and start cannibalizing each other. That's not the answer.
Clearly, either extreme is unacceptable, in fact ridiculous. We musn't keep
generating greenhouse gases at the current rate, and we can't simply stop it
all. And in the attempt to find a happy medium, we can't expect every individual
and company to make expensive and complicated changes, in many cases without
good alternatives, out of the generosity of their hearts. Sheryl Crow can sing
all she wants, but people and industry are still going to do what they need
to do. So this means that to get anything done, we have to impose rules and
regulations on everybody — like, for example, the Kyoto Protocol, an
international agreement attempting to address 55% of global greenhouse gases
from 160 countries.
I believe the United States was clearly right in its refusal to ratify the
Kyoto Protocol, because of its fundamentally nonsensical exemptions. In short,
the Kyoto Protocol restricts nations based on how wealthy they are, not based
on how much greenhouse gas they produce! The United States would have had to
adopt economy-strangling restrictions, while China, which will surpass the
United States as the world's largest producer of greenhouse gases by 2010 at
the speed at which an IndyCar passes a hobo pushing a shopping basket, remains
exempt from any restrictions. India, the world's third largest producer of
greenhouse gases, is also exempt. Even Al Gore says that 30% of global CO2 emissions
come from forest burning in the exempt third world nations. That's a pretty
big chunk that nobody seems to talk much about. Some interpretations have said
that without additional controls on the exempt nations, the Kyoto Protocol
would result in eventual increases in the total greenhouse gas output.
By these interpretations, the Kyoto Protocol is merely a symbolic political
statement and not a useful tool for reducing greenhouse gases. Personally I
think it was simply a case of too many cooks and conflicting interests. Blanket
proclamations like the Kyoto Protocol are not the way to approach the problem
with any workable practicality. In fact, 13 of the 15 European nations who
did ratify Kyoto have been unable to comply with its requirements.
Most reasonable people agree that reducing pollution is generally a good goal,
and that it should be done wherever the cost/benefit analysis tips the scale.
The costs of making changes can be determined with reasonable accuracy by the
pencil pushers and the bean counters. Where these equations become foggy is
on the benefit side of the scale. Is the only real potential benefit to be
gained the opportunity to have a nice pretty smog-free view of the countryside?
Or is the potential benefit our very survival in the face of immediate global
catastrophe? How much would you pay for one, and how much would you pay for
the other? We simply don't know what we can actually buy here, what we'll actually
get for our money. Spend a billion dollars to retrofit factories with carbon
dioxide recapturing technologies, and how much is that going to help? Exactly
what effect will that have on Al Gore's charts and graphs? Nobody has any idea.
It's like we're playing a global game of The Price Is Right: We're standing
here with a fistful of dollars, we don't know what's behind any of the doors,
and everyone in the audience is shouting.
There is a way to find out what we can actually achieve through the reduction
of greenhouse gases, and thus know how much of a reduction we need to
make, plan a way to pay for it and actually make it happen: Doing more science
and learning more about our planet. And we're already doing that. More climatologists
are working on the problem than ever before. The risk we face now is getting
stuck in the rut of doing nothing until it's too late, waiting for answers
that will never fully come.
What are your thoughts on global warming? Please post your comments on the Skeptoid.com
web site and forum,
and discuss them on the Skeptalk
email discussion list, which you'll find online at Skeptoid.com.
By Brian Dunning
Please contact us with any corrections or feedback.
Cite this article:
Dunning, B. "Heating Up to Global Warming." Skeptoid Podcast. Skeptoid Media,
16 Apr 2007. Web.
25 Nov 2015. <http://skeptoid.com/episodes/4039>
References & Further Reading
Beerling, D., et. al. "Methane and the CH4–Related Greenhouse Effect Over the Past 400 Million Years." American Journal of Science. 1 Feb. 2009, Volume 309: Pages 97-113.
Gore, Al. An Inconvenient Truth. Emmaus, USA: Rodale Books, 2006.
Keeling, R., Piper, S., Bollenbacher, A., Walker, S. "Keeling Curve." Scripps CO2 Program. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 5 Nov. 2009. Web. 10 Jan. 2010. <http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/home/index.php>
Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development. OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030. Paris: OECD Publishing, 2008. Chapter 12.
Stern, Nicholas. "The Economics of Climate Change." American Economic Review. 1 May 2008, 98:2: 1-37.
UNFCCC. "Kyoto Protocol." Kyoto Protocol. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 11 Dec. 1997. Web. 10 Jan. 2010. <http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php>
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