Illuminating the Fatima "Miracle of the Sun"

Did three children miraculously predict a dancing sun in Portugal in 1917?

Filed under Ancient Mysteries, Religion

Skeptoid #110
July 22, 2008
Podcast transcript | Listen | Subscribe
 

Today we're going to go back in time nearly a century, to the day of one of the Roman Catholic Church's greatest miracles; indeed, an event cited by some religious scholars as not merely our greatest miracle, but perhaps the most important event in history. This was the incident known as the "Miracle of the Sun", an inexplicable solar phenomenon predicted by three children to the day, and witnessed by tens of thousands of gathered worshipers and journalists. How can one be skeptical of something with so many eyewitnesses, so much printed news coverage, so many photographs, and such a specific prediction?

Three shepherd children, ten-year-old Lucia Santos and her two cousins, worked in a field called Cova da Iria near Fátima, Portugal, in 1917, during the first World War. Over a period of six months, the children reported a long series of religious apparitions, the most extraordinary of which were six visits from the Virgin Mary herself. Mary told the children many things, including three famous secrets; but the most extraordinary revelation was that on October 13 of that year, they would witness a miracle. The children's reports of these apparitions in the village church attracted the attention of a local newspaper or two, which in turn attracted the attention of a regional newspaper or two; and soon the Cova da Iria fields turned into something of a Grand Central Station of miracle seekers. And, on October 13, as many as 100,000 believers packed the area, and just as the Virgin Mary foretold, they witnessed an inexplicable miracle in the sky: From behind the rain clouds, the sun came out, danced, changed colors, spun like a pinwheel, and made a most sensational demonstration. Photographs and articles plastered the newspapers of the world, and thirteen years to the day later, it was officially recognized as a miracle by the Roman Catholic Church.

It's hard to argue with the facts of this event. The day was predicted in newspapers by a ten-year-old girl, and this is thoroughly proven. Tens of thousands of people personally witnessed exactly what the prediction said would happen. The sun's behavior was clearly unique, and couldn't have been mistaken for some chance atmospheric oddity. You add all this together, and the only reasonable conclusion is that Lucia Santos' vision and prediction was a genuine miracle.

Unless, of course, you set a reasonable standard for evidence, and start looking for things like alternate explanations. Let's point our skeptical eye at some of these details one by one, and see if they hold up to scrutiny. I'll start with the children's reports of six months of religious apparitions. These were three kids, ages 7 to 10, and came back home each night with wild tales. Is this surprising? Is the miraculous appearance of the Virgin Mary really the most probable explanation for stories told by small kids? The two youngest, Lucia's cousins, both died of influenza within a couple of years, but Lucia lived to the age of 97 and clung to her stories her entire life. Investigator Joe Nickell reports that Lucia's own mother said that she was "Nothing but a fake who is leading half the world astray." Friar Mario de Oliveira, who knew her well, described her as living in a "delirious world of infantile fantasies" and suffering from "religious hallucinations". There are alternate explanations for the children's stories, imagination and boredom being chief among them.

So onto the specific date of October 13, 1917, so widely publicized in print that tens of thousands of people appeared. Clearly you're not going to make a pilgrimage like that unless you're pretty religious and pretty confident that you're going to witness a miracle. So, we have a crowd preconditioned to expect to see something. Newspaper accounts estimated between 30,000 and 100,000 worshipers gathered at Cova da Iria. However, a number of photographs of the crowd do exist, and though it does look like several thousand to me, I certainly wouldn't go as high as thirty. Either the photographers chose not to show the largest part of the crowds, which seems an odd choice; or the newspapers reported exaggerated numbers. Interestingly, if you do a Google image search you'll find lots of pictures of huge crowds, many of which show a perfectly bright and sunny day. It is always reported to have been raining quite heavily during the event, and I only ever found a single picture that showed a crowd with umbrellas. So I think a snippet of skepticism is warranted when viewing these large crowd photos with thousands of faces staring heavenward.

How impressive was the sun's display? An old black and white photograph of the actual sun miracle event shows a lot of dark rain clouds behind some trees and the sun poking through. There is certainly nothing in the photograph that looks unusual, but of course a photograph is static. Whatever the crowd saw was not interesting enough to be noticeable in a photograph. A lot of skeptical explanations have been put forward: Dust in the atmosphere causing the sun to appear in different colors, a sundog or parhelion formed by ice crystals, a rainbow, and observations that the descriptions don't match where the sun should have been in the sky at that time. It's also been pointed out that observatories around the world reported nothing unusual that day, so whatever it was had to have been a localized phenomenon. Personally I gravitate toward an even simpler explanation, fueled by having spent many happy hours as a child laying on my back and staring directly at the sun. When you do that, you can't see a round, static disk. Your eyes and pupils spazz out, and "dancing" is certainly one way to describe what you see. Spinning would be another valid way to perceive it. If there are tens of thousands of people fully expecting to see something amazing, and someone shouts "Hey look at the sun," guess what, you've now got tens of thousands of people seeing something amazing in the sun.

There's an experiment you can do. Stand on the sidewalk and point up toward the top of a building. People walking by will look up too. Some of them will pause. If another person looks at them, they might point up as well. Anything anyone sees will be assumed to be what you were pointing at. Go to Starbucks, have a coffee, and watch the fun. To me it's not only plausible, it's probable that if a single person at Cova da Iria told that desperate crowd that the sun looked strange, you'd have had ten thousand people agreeing "Yeah, it did look a little funky, kind of jumped around and danced when I tried to look at it," or whatever they thought they saw. And this would have happened on October 12, June 1, or any other day you choose.

Most of what's popularly reported about the sun incident, such as the colors and the spinning, comes from Father John de Marchi, a Catholic priest who spent years interviewing eyewitnesses to build evidence supporting the miraculous event. But more objective assessments of the eyewitness accounts have found very little evidence of a single shared experience. Author Kevin McClure, who also compiled eyewitness accounts, reported that he had "never seen such a collection of contradictory accounts in any of the research I have done in the past 10 years." If you were there, as a devout Catholic (otherwise you wouldn't be there), you fully believed in a miracle happening that day (otherwise you wouldn't be there), whether you personally saw anything or not you'd support the majority opinion, and probably go to your grave insisting that a miracle happened there. There's no surprise that Father de Marchi was able to form a consensus description of a spinning color wheel of a sun, and no need for any actual event to justify his consensus.

Father de Marchi says the sun was a spinning color wheel that day, which cannot be reconciled with the photograph. I say there was nothing special in the sky that day, which reconciles exactly with the photograph.

$2/mo $5/mo $10/mo One time

Now let's go back to those three secrets that the Virgin Mary supposedly revealed to Lucia. The "miracle of the sun" was not one of the three secrets, in fact Lucia wouldn't tell anyone what the secrets were until many years later, when she was a nun, and was asked to write them down by the Bishop of Leiria in 1941. She would only write the first two. The first secret was a vision of Hell, not really a prediction about anything, nor much of a secret. The second secret was a prediction that World War I would end, and that World War II would start if God continued to be offended by man's crimes. This wasn't terribly surprising either, since World War II had already begun when she wrote it. Not the kind of prediction that blows my mind. It took two more years before the Bishop of Leiria finally got Lucia to write down the third secret, and when she did, she sealed it in an envelope marked "Do not open until 1960", because she felt that nobody would understand it until then. When the Vatican revealed its contents in 1990, Cardinal Ratzinger (now Pope Benedict XVI) warned that it was anticlimactic, saying "No great mystery is revealed; nor is the future unveiled," and even speculated that Lucia's vision may have simply been conjured from religious texts. It described a vision full of religious imagery: Angels with swords, masses of corpses on a mountainside, Bishops and Priests being killed by soldiers, souls ascending to heaven. The takeaway from Lucia's three secrets is that in no way were they miraculous or otherwise unexplainable predictions.

The Roman Catholic Church will only declare a miracle after all other possible explanations have been ruled out, leaving divine intervention as the only possible rationalization. Since the Fátima "Miracle of the Sun" is easily explained, and even falsified by photographic evidence, it's probably time for the Catholics to reexamine their criteria.

Brian Dunning

© 2008 Skeptoid Media, Inc. Copyright information

References & Further Reading

BBC. "Eye fears over holy shrine 'visions'." BBC news. BBC, 2 Dec. 2009. Web. 25 Jan. 2010. <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8390184.stm>

Dawkins, R. Unweaving the Rainbow: Science, Delusion and the Appetite for Wonder. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1998. 133-135.

de Marchi, Joao. The True Story of Fatima. Saint Paul: Catechetical Guild Educational Society, 1956.

McClure, Kevin. The Evidence for Visions of the Virgin Mary. New York: Sterling Publishing, 1983.

Meesen, A. "Apparitions and Miracles of the Sun." International Forum in Porto “Science, Religion and Conscience”. 23 Oct. 1005, 1645-6564: 199-222.

Nickell, Joe. Looking for a Miracle: Weeping Icons, Relics, Stigmata, Visions, and Healing Cures. Amherst: Prometheus Books, 1993. 176-181.

Reference this article:
Dunning, B. "Illuminating the Fatima "Miracle of the Sun"." Skeptoid Podcast. Skeptoid Media, Inc., 22 Jul 2008. Web. 31 Jul 2014. <http://skeptoid.com/episodes/4110>

Discuss!

10 most recent comments | Show all 494 comments

Duncan
Your first paragraph tells me enough. You have not read previous posts. The action of the sun that day was meant only for the people in the cova. The rest of Europe did not get that miracle.
The rest of your rant speaks for itself.

Steve, Salem
March 28, 2014 6:14pm

If the sun had indeed been dancing around in the sky, even a bit, shadows of pretty much everything would too have been doing a dance. No need to stare at the sun to see shadow movement; in fact it would have been the most direct, reliable and convincing argument for the sun's changing of positionin the sky. Plus it would have the added benefit of enhancing the change of position, as shadow movement is usually amplified due to angular proportioning. Yet, I don't ever recall any mention of this occuring. And it would have been easily documented with several photos taken at intervals throughout the event, showing the changing shadow displacement. Yet somehow this easily obtainable piece of evidence never seems to show up. Hence, the all too obvious lack of critical thinking by so many.

TheCarMan, Freehold, NJ
April 5, 2014 7:00am

Ok, so what all this boils down to is that a miracle is real if you believe in it.

Reality is defined by what you believe.

OK, I think I've got it........

Swampwitch, Gainesville Fl
April 15, 2014 2:23pm

Daniel wrote: "I believe it to be a miracle. There are too many things that cannot be explained..."

Here's the problem with belief-based reasoning : It stinks.

First, who is to say that something can't be explained? Does the fact that something is unexplained mean that it can never be explained? Of course not. It's a huge and invalid leap to equate 'unexplained' with 'unexplainable'.

Second, this kind of reasoning attempts to extract an explanation ('it's a miracle') from the lack of an explanation! That should be obviously invalid to everyone. An explanation can NEVER emerge from the lack of an explanation. An explanation has to stand on its own. It can't be supported by the lack of an alternative explanation.

Third, explanations do exist (as the post provides) that Daniel is ignoring. Clearly, as the post notes, the effect must be local. Thus, it can't be a real, physical phenomenon. And if it's not a real, physical phenomenon then what has to be explained is entirely different from what the believers want to believe. The whole thing becomes much more explainable as a mass delusion brought upon by religious fervor and expectation. IOW, the people were primed to see and that caused them to see. Thus, there is absolutely no reason to invoke a miracle.

Ray, New Jersey
April 20, 2014 2:50am

Not a terribly impressive rebuttal, I have to say. You basically claim mass hallucination, saying everybody who was there was expecting to see something because they were all devout Catholics who had been psychologically prepped to see something - therefore, they saw something. This contradicts the reports from the day that many were there as skeptics looking for an opportunity to discredit the visionaries, including the reporter from O Seculo, Avelino de Almeida. O Seculo was a pro-government, pro-Masonic, anti-clerical paper, and Almeida had written a number of articles prior to Oct 13 ridiculing the gullibility of the people who believed the visionaries - until he witnessed the Miracle of the Sun himself.
The Church offers evidence for the miracle at Fatima from priests who have a vested interest in the miracles being true. You offer counter evidence from skeptics who have a vested interest in the miracles not being true. I would rather rely on the testimony of those who were actually there.

BobRN, Knoxville, TN
April 22, 2014 6:02am

Miracle at Fatima is that a 10 year old uneducated girl predicted the date of the event 3 months before it occurred.

Doris, korn
May 9, 2014 2:33pm

plain and simply it was a miracle I was born on Friday 13th 1962 I was dedicated to the blessed mother and I am a devout roman catholic

joseph m. ott,a.s.,b.a.,m.a.,c.c.h., saint petersburg fl
May 10, 2014 12:39pm

Very disingenuous. Lucia's mother made the comments attributed to her before she came to believe her child was seeing an apparition. She later came to believe.
Also, your criticism of crowd size estimates doesn't make sense because the irreligious atheist media figures who were present would not have wanted to over estimate the crowd, regardless of the fact they also witnessed the miracle. Finally, the miracle was witnessed up to 30 km from Fatima killing your theory about mass suggestion.

Philip Maguire, Neerim East Australia
May 10, 2014 9:03pm

What was interesting was that it was on a Sabbath and on the fourth Sabbath of the month on the first torah reading of the year. 7=completion. 4= Genesis 1:14, fourth day of Creation. According to God, it is a miaracle. Sun, Moon, Stars is for signs and seasons. October 13th, 2017 is n an annual Sabbath on the 2nd Annual Sabbath of Feast of Tabernacles. That reading for that day is for Israel to be gathered into the Messianic Kingdom.

Jardalkal, Tijeras, NM
June 30, 2014 7:33pm

OK, even if you ignore a couple of apparent miracles --spinning sun, witnessed by thousands; prediction about the end of WWI, start of WWII-- where are the refutations of all the other predictions: "Russia will spread her errors", when at that time Russia was a backward country and the revolution hadn't even started, and besides these were peasant children who's parents, let alone they new nothing about the world political situation; and the prediction that the two younger children would soon die? And what child do you know that has had a 'fantasy', would risk death rather than recant their claimed vision, And lastly, would go on to commit her entire life to a religious vocation --living into her 90's-- and still not recant any of her story? And if she was lying, what would have been her motive? Certainly not fame or money; unlike most all of her critics, with an overarching hatred of the Catholic Church. Last but not least, this apparition was not an anomaly, as there have been numerous similar documented cases; most noteworthy, Lourdes and Guadalupe. Based on the way current world events are unfolding, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

Albertabest, Alberta
July 20, 2014 11:42pm

Make a comment about this episode of Skeptoid (please try to keep it brief & to the point).

Post a reply

 

What's the most important thing about Skeptoid?

Support Skeptoid
 
Skeptoid host, Brian Dunning
Skeptoid is hosted
and produced by
Brian Dunning


Newest
Albino Facts and Fiction
Skeptoid #425, Jul 29 2014
Read | Listen (13:49)
 
The Santa Barbara Simoom of 1859
Skeptoid #424, Jul 22 2014
Read | Listen (12:27)
 
12 Step Programs
Skeptoid #423, Jul 15 2014
Read | Listen (12:44)
 
Lie Detection
Skeptoid #422, Jul 8 2014
Read | Listen (13:25)
 
Listeners Have a Say
Jul 4 2014
Listen (4:26)
 
Newest
#1 -
Listener Feedback: Alternative Medicine
Read | Listen
#2 -
The JFK Assassination
Read | Listen
#3 -
Asking the Socratic Questions
Read | Listen
#4 -
5 False Arguments for Raw Milk
Read | Listen
#5 -
The Riddle of the L-8 Blimp
Read | Listen
#6 -
Fukushima vs Chernobyl vs Three Mile Island
Read | Listen
#7 -
Who Discovered the New World?
Read | Listen
#8 -
An Enthusiast's Primer on Study Types
Read | Listen

Recent Comments...

[Valid RSS]

  Skeptoid PodcastSkeptoid on Facebook   Skeptoid on Twitter   Brian Dunning on Google+   Skeptoid on Stitcher   Skeptoid RSS

Members Portal

 
 


Follow @BrianDunning

Tweets about "skeptoid"

Support Skeptoid

Name/Nickname:  
City/Location:
Email: [Why do we need this?]To reduce spam, we email new faces a confirmation link you must click before your comment will appear.
Comment:
characters left. Abusive posts and spam will be deleted.